Ministry of Justice: Publications: Reports: 1999: Sentencing in New Zealand: a statistical analysis

Appendix I: Factors influencing the 'no sentence' options

Just under 5% of offenders in 1995 received no sentence as a result of their proved case. That is, they were convicted and discharged, discharged without conviction or admonished in the Youth Court.

A summary of the statistical factors that influence the probability of receiving no sentence are presented here (Table I.1) to assist in the interpretation of results in the main part of this report on sentencing. For example, the results for 'no sentence' options help explain the findings that youth offenders (aged under 17) have a relatively low probability of all sentences and that female offenders have a relatively low probability of receiving a monetary penalty.

The factors that increase the relative probability of receiving no sentence are:

a low seriousness offence (seriousness score of 20 or less, especially disorder offences)
one or a small number of charges in the current case
a young offender (aged under 17) or an offender aged 30 or more
a female offender
an offence against justice

Conversely, factors that decrease the relative probability of receiving no sentence are:

a traffic offence (imprisonable traffic offences commonly result in a driving disqualification even if no other sentence is imposed)
a drug offence or serious offence against the person
a Māori offender
a previous periodic detention or community service sentence
a previous offending history.

Table 1.1: Logistic regression model for 'no sentence' options, 1995

Variable	Category	Odds ratio	Chi-square	P	Rank
Current seriousness	>1-20	1.135	5.6	0.0177	29
	>20-180	0.617	50.5	0.0001	12
	>180-365	0.534	10.2	0.0014	23
	>365	0.386	17.3	0.0001	18
Current charges	2-4	0.444	325.9	0.0001	2
	5+	0.197	188.2	0.0001	6
Current offence	Serious against person	0.585	15.1	0.0001	19
	Domestic violence	-	-	-	-
	Minor against person	-	-	-	-
	Drugs	0.585	63.1	0.0001	9
	Breach pd	2.880	264.7	0.0001	4
	Other against justice	3.844	325.2	0.0001	3
	Disorder/other	2.141	231.3	0.0001	5
	Traffic	0.032	914.9	0.0001	1
Plea	Guilty	0.610	89.3	0.0001	8
Gender	Female	1.391	53.0	0.0001	11
Age group	<17	3.937	132.9	0.0001	7
	17-19	-	-	-	-
	30+	1.363	62.3	0.0001	10
Ethnicity	Māori	0.877	12.8	0.0004	21
	Pacific	-	-	-	-
Most recent sentence	Prison	-	-	-	-
	Periodic detention	0.781	21.8	0.0001	16
	Comm. programme	-	-	-	-
	Comm. service	0.797	6.6	0.0100	26
	Supervision	-	-	-	-
Previous sentence	Prison	-	-	-	-
	Periodic detention	0.848	7.2	0.0072	25
	Comm. programme	-	-	-	-
	Comm. service	0.887	4.8	0.0288	31
	Supervision	-	-	-	-
Previous offence	Breach cbs	1.149	5.8	0.0161	27
Previous proved cases	1-3	0.698	37.2	0.0001	14
	4-10	0.628	40.5	0.0001	13
	11+	0.734	12.0	0.0005	22
Previous seriousness	>10-60	0.741	27.9	0.0001	15
	>60-180	0.744	21.4	0.0001	17
	>180	0.854	4.8	0.0282	30
Time since previous case	1 month or less	-	-	-	-
	>1 month-1 year	0.828	14.6	0.0001	20
	>1-4 years	0.855	8.8	0.0029	24
Rate of conviction	2-8 charges per year	0.899	5.8	0.0163	28
	>8 charges per year	-	-	-	-

Note: An odds ratio of >1.0 indicates a high relative risk (i.e. more likely to receive this sentence than the reference group). The most significant variable (highest Wald Chi-square, lowest probability P), is rank '1'.